America is waking up to an astonishing Democratic sweep. As I write, Dems may end up with 56 Senate seats and as many as 261 House seats — more than almost anyone predicted. States long considered unwinnable have flipped, with Dems racking up wins in Kansas, Texas and South Carolina — and even Mississippi in play. It is, by some metrics, the best result for the party since Watergate: a win of truly historic proportions.
As I wrote last week, this was not “the AI election” (though AI did play a role). Except for certain local races and ballot measures, AI does not seem to have decided people’s votes. Their votes, however, will decide what happens to AI.
The most obvious impact is on data centers. Over 30 ballot measures to restrict data centers passed. Democratic governors in Georgia and Texas (where Dems also won many key state office races) will likely constrain buildouts further. This morning, Goldman Sachs warned investors to expect “short-term data center moratoria, potentially affecting about 45% of planned US data center capacity expansion.” As Elon Musk — one of the biggest losers of the night — said, “data centers in space [are] looking pretty appealing right now.”
On the Hill, meanwhile, the likelihood of strong frontier AI legislation passing next year just shot up. Democrats have signaled repeatedly that AI is a top priority, with some even citing it in their victory speeches. With such large majorities, the need for them to compromise is much lower.
If Democrats end up with 56 Senate seats, they only need to flip four Republicans — which should also be easier than ever, given that the GOP wipeout will embolden Republicans to go against President Trump (they are already beginning to do so). And with AI industry PACs falling flat last night (Leading the Future lost in South Carolina, the only competitive race it played in) while safety PACs won big, members of Congress will be less fearful of the former than they have been. Concretely, I suspect this means a bill stronger than Reps. Obernolte and Trahan’s FRONTIER Act — one with tough safety standards, mandatory testing and approval of the most powerful models, and narrower preemption language — passes in the first few months of next year. Entirely new types of AI legislation may even be on the table: strict liability for developers or data center moratoria, for instance.
Of course, any such bill would still need to be signed by the president. But the midterm results make that more likely, too. Trump hates losing, and will be entering today wondering how his closest advisers could have steered him and the party so wrong. A clearing out is entirely possible. At the same time, AI companies — wary of upsetting Congress and preparing for a Democratic president in 2028 — will tone down their regulatory opposition, continuing a trend that has already begun. That, combined with the ever increasing salience of AI’s impacts and risks, could lead Trump to sign something that would have been unthinkable a year ago.
Such an outcome is not guaranteed: with Trump, nothing is certain. But compared to 24 hours ago, strong AI legislation now looks much more likely. AI might not have decided this election, but this election may have just decided the future of AI.